My Trading Licks

After a turbulent day of more disruptive tweets and tariffs, in the grand scheme of things on the chart, it’s really just another inside day on the S&P 500. From a volume perspective, though, there was a 21% jump in overall volume from Wednesday’s relief session. The relatively small price move, in relation to the big move in volume usually means there’s some “churning” going on under the hood… which usually means the market is setting itself up for an even bigger move.

Whether or not the big boys will run and hide with their current 1.5% gains for the year is anyone’s guess, but TVO, our long-term volume oscillator, is still in BUY territory (0 to 3.0), so we can assume some of them still have some skin in the game. And with the jobs report just ahead, you can bet that they’ve already placed their bets on which way this is going. -MD

Sentiment: LIMBO – Markets are neutral and sentiment can go either way from here.
Volume: 21% – Today’s volume was higher than the previous session.
Real Feel: SWELTERING – Bears were in control of the session with a slight trace of buying under the surface.
Cycle: OVERBOUGHT I – Retail investors are confident and slightly overweight in their holdings.
Portfolio: BUY – The market is healthy and it’s a good time to contribute to long term investments.
Next Day Move: SIDEWAYS DOWN - The probability that SPY will be positive in the next session is 51%.

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