TVO Market Barometer 9-28: Can you judge a book by its cover?
When it comes to people’s character, there are some qualities and traits that can certainly be taken at face value. Indeed, things like honesty, deception, and many elements of social agenda are written all over the face (and sometimes the hats) of many folks… often to the point where their motives are obvious and easy to spot.
The stock market, on the other hand, is far from the obvious. And many times further investigation leads you even further from the truth.
Unless of course you dig deeper beneath the surface and look at volume.
On the last day of the quarter, SPY barely moved a few cents from the previous session, while overall volume rose 12%. This kind of “churning” is just the kind of unseen evidence that there’s more than meets the eye and almost always precedes a big move.
The direction of the move is anyone’s guess, but TVO, our volume oscillator, is firmly in the “healthy market” mode and rising. Even though their motives may not be clear (they rarely ever are), when big institutions decide to run with it, whether or not you believe them or agree with the outcome, there’s little anyone can do to stop the wave. -MD
Sentiment: EAGER – Markets are in accumulation mode and big institutions are buying at a slow and steady pace.
Volume: 12% – Today’s volume was higher than the previous session.
Real Feel: BALMY – Bears were in control of the session with considerable buying under the surface.
Cycle: OVERSOLD I – Retail investors are uncertain and very light in their holdings.
Portfolio: BUY – The market is healthy and it’s a good time to contribute to long-term investments.
Next Day Move: SIDEWAYS -Â The probability that SPY will close positive in the next session is 54%.
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