TVO Market Barometer 8-22: This “old” bull still has plenty of fire.
On Tuesday SPY broke through the January high, only to be quickly taken down below that highly anticipated 287 resistance level on Wednesday. There was enough volume behind the move, though, to place it firmly in the accumulation category, making it the first across-the-board accumulation day in August.
Not exactly bearish behavior for a market that was supposedly pricing in a “surprise” Manafort-Cohen guilty verdict (An event that will likely be touted as “The M-C Top” until proven otherwise). But if this market was really focused on federal probes and “tell-all” books rather than raw economic numbers, things wouldn’t have come nearly this far.
TVO, our long-term volume oscillator, continues to drop, though, so perhaps the bulls need to regroup for the long haul. While this bull market may now officially be the oldest (unofficially it’s really only 2 years old), there is plenty of fire behind the ball (ie. volume) to keep things going in the short-term. -MD
Sentiment: ANXIOUS – Markets are in a distribution phase where big institutions are selling to reduce their exposure.
Volume: -11% – Today’s volume was lower than the previous session.
Real Feel: CHILLY – Bulls were in control of the session with substantial selling under the surface.
Cycle: OVERBOUGHT II – Retail investors are overly cocky and heavily positioned in their holdings.
Portfolio: HOLD – The market is in a period of indecisiveness and the best place is on the sidelines.
Next Day Move: SIDEWAYS -Â The probability that SPY will close positive in the next session is 52%.
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