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TVO Market Barometer 7-13: Happy Birthday Bull Market!

Just about every time the market rises these days, the 9-year bull market folks start chiming in.

Sure, the indices are much higher now than the ’09 bottom, but anyone who thinks it’s been only bullish since then has either never traded, or is conveniently overlooking the SPY 205 sideways market (and major corrections) that started in 2015 and lasted almost 2 years (Yes, I still remember it well).

As a matter of fact, it was exactly 2 years ago last week that the S&P 500 finally broke from that range, and other than a bout of pre-election jitters, has never looked back. So perhaps, instead of lamenting the endless bull market that never seems to die, we really should be celebrating its 2nd birthday… Food for thought.

Overall volume fell last Friday, as SPY broke previous resistance, but 280.41 is the magic number the bulls will be watching for this week. Also closely watched will be the Fed testimony. Whether investors that are now buying the rumor will be selling the news on Tuesday, we’ll just have to wait and see. -MD

Sentiment: LIMBO – Markets are neutral and sentiment can go either way from here.

Volume: -9% – Today’s volume was lower than the previous session.

Real Feel: TORRID – Bears were in control of the session with moderate buying under the surface.

Cycle: OVERBOUGHT II – Retail investors are overly cocky and heavily positioned in their holdings.

Portfolio: BUY – The market is healthy and it’s a good time to contribute to long-term investments.

Next Day Move: UP - The probability that SPY will close positive in the next session is 59%.

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