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One gap down, one to go? – TVO MB 4-09

The S&P 500 snapped an 8 day win streak on Tuesday, apparently because of the threat of more tariffs… which is apparently a better headline than “Winning streak broken, because it just can’t go on forever.”

But in all seriousness, to say the market has been overbought lately is a bit of an understatement. Any small catalyst is something to watch out for. TVO is in LIMBO, though, so from a volume perspective, there’s still plenty of room to run in the longer term.

The Nasdaq just barely logged a volume distribution day, while overall volume fell on most of the other indices. As usual, the big question in the air is what will the Fed say on Wednesday. But more importantly is how will the market react to it.

Today’s dive filled the 287.50 gap on SPY, however, the big one at 283-284 still remains. I’m not saying it has to be filled right away, but all gaps do get filled eventually. Unless of course you consider it to be a breakaway gap, in which case, the time you spend waiting for that one to fill may indeed go on forever. -MD

Sentiment: LIMBO – Markets are neutral and sentiment can go either way from here.

Volume: 0% – Today’s volume was lower than the previous session.

Real Feel: SCORCHING – Bears dominated the session with a minuscule amount of buying under the surface.

Cycle: BULLISH II – Retail investors are overly cocky and heavily positioned in their holdings.

Portfolio: HOLD – The market is in a period of indecisiveness and the best place is on the sidelines.

Next Day Move: UP - The probability that SPY will close positive in the next session is 59%.

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