Another V rally? You didn’t see anything.
Overall volume surged more than 20% on Tuesday and the bulls finally got the shakeout they’ve been waiting for (thanks to Google). The only problem is, it only lasted for about 2 hours. For those folks who don’t stare at screens all day (like yours truly), it’s as if it never happened.
If you did manage to catch the 2 point drop on SPY, congrats. For those whose systems rely on much bigger swings to justify the reward/risk (again, like yours truly), the bigger dips are coming, rest assured.
In the volume department, though, today could hardly be called an all-out victory for the bulls. By midday, it was apparent that the majority of the day’s volume was already in place, weighing in more on the morning flush than on the right side of the afternoon flying “V”.
It’s really mostly a stalemate between sides at this point. But always keep in mind that the market inherently goes up (otherwise why are we doing this?), so the bears have more work cut out for them on their end. The VIX did jump a little bit today, so we can expect another possible match tomorrow in and around the Fed announcement. -MD
Sentiment: HUNGRY – Markets are accumulating at an accelerated rate and big institutional buying is heavy and aggressive.
Volume: 23% – Today’s volume was higher than the previous session.
Real Feel: BALMY – Bears were in control of the session with considerable buying under the surface.
Cycle: BULLISH II – Retail investors are overly cocky and heavily positioned in their holdings.
Portfolio: HEDGE – The market is over saturated and long-term investments warrant some protection.
Next Day Move: SIDEWAYS -Â The probability that SPY will close positive in the next session is 54%.
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