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All gap and no go makes SPY a dull boy. – TVO MB 3-01

Friday’s action on SPY when looking at a typical price chart can pretty much be summed up as all gap and no go on light volume. Our Heat Gauge is showing mostly the same, but the quick dump in the first half of the day failed to heat up anything past the COOL level.

Under the mask of “light volume” the bulls were very much in control of the session. With a potential double top at 281 and an unfilled 276 gap below, however, reward/risk does favor the bears at this point.

TVO has been stuck at the same level for the past 3 days, so the big picture in the long-term is that we’re likely going to consolidate in this range a while before either side can claim the next big move. -MD

Sentiment: HUNGRY – Markets are accumulating at an accelerated rate and big institutional buying is heavy and aggressive.

Volume: -9% – Today’s volume was lower than the previous session.

Real Feel: CHILLY – Bulls were in control of the session with substantial selling under the surface.

Cycle: BULLISH I – Retail investors are confident and slightly overweight in their holdings.

Portfolio: HEDGE – The market is over saturated and long term investments warrant some protection.

Next Day Move: SIDEWAYS – The probability that SPY will close positive in the next session is 53%.

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