TVO Market Barometer 1-31: There’s a calm before the storm

This week the president spoke, Ms. Yellen bid farewell, and in waiting for Friday’s jobs report, the market did… Well, from a volume perspective, not very much at all. After Tuesday’s precipitous drop, advance decline volume today was a clear even stalemate. Volume overall, however, rose 9%, so there appears to be some churning under the hood as investors re position themselves with rising rates on the horizon. But is this a calm before the storm that eventually takes us up or down?

Churning before a move up in the short-term seems likely, but in the larger picture distribution has begun to take hold. TVO, our volume oscillator, is in LIMBO and a move below zero would take us out of healthy market status (Our Issues Oscillator is already sub-zero). In any case, until the market either establishes a new course or resumes its blast off into kingdom come, there’s now plenty of volatility around to keep both bears and bulls pretty busy. -MD

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