TVO Market Barometer 12-18: This is not going to go the way you think

Asked a friend, who just happens to be one of the country’s top fund managers (with a magazine cover or 2 to his credit), how his portfolio was doing. “Oh, we’re up around 30-35% this year. How about you Mike? Are you closing it up for the year?”

With the end of the year a mere 8 trading days away and holiday travel plans just starting to kick in, big institutions with stellar gains are, without a doubt, most certainly in the position to “close it up” for 2017. And looking at recent volume, that seems to be exactly what they’re doing.

Last Friday logged a solid across the board accumulation day (2nd one in December), but our HG chilled down to FRIGID for 2 days in a row. At this level, markets are nearing the saturation point where there’s no one left to buy and all the seats in the theater are sold out (always a good idea to buy the tickets early).

So does this mean that the bears will finally get their movie-like epic “down in a blaze of glory” sell-off this year? Not very likely. But while the big funds are closing it up, the infinite upside that many bulls are predicting is looking quite finite in the near term.

And if you’re not ready to accept that kind of unsatisfying fate for the rest of 2017, remember… if you don’t like the way it ends, there’s always another episode in the works. And you’ll eventually come to terms with it. -MD

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