TVO Market Barometer 2/27/17

If there’s one thing I’ve noticed overwhelmingly in my near decade of trading the markets, it’s that the obvious scenario never quite plays out the way you think it will. With the Dow closing in a record run it seems obvious enough that Trump’s speech tomorrow night would be the perfect catalyst/sell the news event to finally derail what some folks are calling the “suckers” rally. But aren’t those the same folks that said “sell everything” right before the election? Big institutions didn’t listen to the “experts” then and with the Nasdaq logging yet another accumulation day on Monday, the big boys apparently still haven’t gotten the memo yet (And tuning out the noise of pundits and tracking institutional volume is exactly the reason our options account is now already up over +10% for 2017). What I’ve found that does seem to result after such anticipated cataclysmic events (Fed meetings, job reports, etc) is not the necessarily the opposite outcome, but rather the more frustrating one (like more sideways or a correction of time)… for the winners and losers. -MD

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