Imagine you’re waiting for the T. It’s a cold night and you’re feeling like it’s never going to show up. Then suddenly you see the lights down the track and you breathe a sigh of relief. Alas, the moment is short-lived because as the train pulls up you notice it’s completely packed and you have barely enough room to get on. You can either try to squeeze in or wait for the next train.
Sound familiar? This is not too different from the situation investors are faced with as the Dow is finally poised to hit 20,000. While the bulls have been benefiting from the surplus of accumulation days (6 so far in December alone on the Nasdaq, 2 across the board), there may just be too many folks already on the train. HG, however, did come in at a rather TORRID +38 on Wednesday, which lightened the load by shaking off some of the more cautious passengers who are slightly concerned ahead of Thursday’s slew of economic reports.
Nevertheless, TVO at +3.2 is now in sell mode and our General Investment Strategy has moved into a cash position (0% invested). I’m sure there are many bears out there who would agree with this move, but it seems that most of them are too busy becoming bulls right now to notice. If that trend continues, the best decision may very well be to wait in the cold for a bit until the next train comes along. -MD
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