TVO Market Barometer 11/8/16

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Surprises come in all shapes and sizes and it’s never safe to bet on a sure thing. Why? Because in a political election (and in the stock market for that matter) there’s no way anyone can take into account all the unseen forces at work. What was thought by many (myself included) to be a “Wall Street holding pattern” poised for a Clinton win, now looks more like the market has slowly been pricing in a Trump victory. Get ready for a rough ride in the near term (so hold on to your MAGA red hats), but considering the amount of distribution we’ve had since mid-September (along with TVO dipping below -5.0), a market bottom may be close at hand. The lesson for the bulls here (as if brexit was not enough of an example) is that a “black swan” can and will happen, and it’s always best to diligently follow your rules and position yourself as tactfully as you can. Volume has been falling over the last few sessions, so perhaps some of the big boys actually knew a DJT win was coming and were just waiting for the real BTFD moment. The voice of America may have spoken it’s mind, but the market surely has a mind of its own. -MD

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