TVO Market Barometer 8/16/16

TVO MB 8-16-16

Markets rolled over on Tuesday and gave us our first across the board distribution day since 8/2. What happened after that last one? SPY ran up almost 4 points. It’s interesting that this sell-off came right on the heels of what sized up to be an all-out volume accumulation day on Monday. The bears would like to hope that the previous session’s gap up “island candle” is a sign that the rally is done, but Monday’s HG at -5, although quite frigid, is nowhere near the kind of number usually associated with up-volume exhaustion (look for -15 or less to go short… if you dare). The current heat at +54 sends a similar message to the bulls, that a battle is going on, but neither side has brought out the heavy artillery. TVO has been moving up and down in an area on the dial that’s historically very bullish, and has now risen back above +1.0. The Fed has the potential to knock things off course for a day or too, but in the big picture of things, big institutions are still looking up to the skies. -MD

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