When options expire on a triple witching Friday (not to mention SPY ex dividend), you can expect volume to get heavy and last Friday at +41% was no exception. The growing down-volume of most indices, though, kept our heat gauge only on the chilly side (down-volume on the big board more than doubled), so the inner tide is slowly starting to turn. In this post-Fed bullish atmosphere, big institutions have already placed their bets, but once they’re all in, the field starts to clear and soon there are none of them around left to buy. The individual investor is then usually left holding the bag after desperately trying to catch the train to all-time highs. TVO continuing to move southward already shows the action of the pendulum swinging the other way, so as big volume sways, a SPY re-test of the 200 dma will likely be the first stop. – MD
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