TVO Weekly Market Barometer 3/4/16

TVO MB 3-4-16

On the eve of what some folks are saying is the 7th anniversary of the bull market, some swift moves on the S&P brought us ever so close to the gap and the 200 dma. If we don’t test those areas in the next few sessions it would surely be in the realm of the unexpected (or another cruel attempt at some kind of market maker humor. If you think closing at 1999.99 was a coincidence, well… they always have to do something to keep you on our toes and keep themselves amused).

As far as volume goes, the bulls have had more than enough to go around this past week. Tuesday and Thursday showed accumulation across the indices, but on Friday despite the +15% increase in overall volume, the Nasdaq didn’t quite make the cut as down-volume is rapidly catching up to up-volume. With TVO reading 3.8, we’re now getting close to the area (greater than +5.0) where we may see a reversal that could put us into a long-term short position. Until that happens we remain on the bullish side, as any significant heat on HG will be still considered a prime opportunity for a short-term long… so glasses can stay raised for now. -MD

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